Analisis Trade & Kajian: 08.10.2019 - The difficult question

08.10.2019 01:37 PM

The difficult question – what awaits the pound and the euro paired with the dollar

The neutral background around the pound is maintained. Instead of continuing to trade in a sideways range between 1.2285 and 1.2365, the GBP headed lower, closing just above the daily low of 1.2288. The downward pressure, although not much, has intensified, and the GBP may continue to decline to the next support level at 1.2260. Currently, there is no objective reason for a further decline, and the level of 1.2235 is likely to remain unattainable for the time being. On the other hand, growth above 1.2340, provided that insignificant resistance is overcome at 1.2315, will mean that the current moderate downward pressure has weakened. Over the next one or three weeks, the GBP is likely to trade "quietly." The price range will remain near the level of 1.2335, and the side trend will continue. A rapid decline in volatility suggests that a range of 1.2235/1.2420 may be enough for the pound over the next few days.

As for the euro paired with the dollar, there is every reason to expect a breakthrough of the key resistance level in the area of 1.10 in the coming weeks, but the next level of 1.1025 is unlikely to be overcome. However, the positive momentum is weakening and the downside risk is rising, and if there is no clear breakthrough at 1.1000, the euro could fall to 1.0950. In the coming weeks, it is difficult to expect any large-scale changes. EUR tests the level of 1.1000 for three days, then retreats to the level of 1.0970 (-0.05%). This price movement was not unexpected, but the current movement should be considered as an early stage of the consolidation phase.

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