empty
02.09.2019 10:53 AM
PMI data reinforces sterling selling, EUR/GBP still a fade on rallies

The sterling was resilient on Friday with EUR/GBP retreating to the 0.9025 area, although the wider dollar's strength pushed GBP/USD below 1.2200.

There was significant weakness in early Europe on Monday with EUR/GBP strengthening to 0.9065 while GBP/USD slid to lows just below 1.2100.

Political developments will inevitably deal a blow to GBP value due to crucial developments in the House of Commons when it returns from recess on Tuesday.

Opposition party members will intensify their efforts to avoid the scenario of a no-deal Brexit at the end of October. The most likely mechanisms for MPs are to attempt to pass the legislation which would force the government to ask for a further Brexit extension if there no deal is finalized by October 31st. There is also the possibility that there will be a no-confidence vote in the government.

Prime Minister Johnson has stepped up pressure on potential rebel Conservative MPs. He stated that they would be thrown out of the party and de-selected for the next General Election if they vote against the government.

A high degree of uncertainty is hanging over the outcome given serious divisions within parliament.

This uncertainty will be a crucial factor as EU leaders are unlikely to review their position and offer concessions on the controversial Northern Ireland backstop if there is no evidence that any revised deal will be passed by the UK parliament.

The UK PMI manufacturing index tumbled to 47.4 for August from 48.0 the previous month and the weakest reading for 85 month. New orders declined sharply to a 7-year low and business confidence also worsened to record lows as political uncertainty sapped sentiment.

The weak data will reinforce fears over the near-term outlook and medium-term damage to the economy, but the euro is still poorly placed to take advantage of the UK's vulnerability with EUR/USD sliding below 1.1000.

Latest CFTC data indicated only a small reduction in short, non-commercial sterling positions with the number of contracts still close to 2-year highs. The data still indicates scope for position liquidation and sharp sterling's gains if there is a shift in sentiment.

A major problem for the sterling bulls is the lack of an obvious trigger for improving sentiment. Thus, sellers will be looking to target 1.2000 in GBP/USD before a potentially sharp rebound.

This image is no longer relevant

Tim Clayton,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pada masa ini, yen Jepun menunjukkan momentum positif berbanding dolar A.S. untuk hari kedua berturut-turut. Faktor utama yang menyokong mata wang Jepun adalah kenyataan bernada agresif daripada Timbalan Gabenor Bank

Irina Yanina 11:28 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Pihak Pasaran Sedang Mengubah Peraturan Permainan

Jangan menentang orang ramai. Menurut laporan dari Goldman Sachs dan Rizab Persekutuan, pelabur individu memegang saham A.S. bernilai $35 trilion pada akhir tahun 2024, bersamaan dengan 38% daripada keseluruhan pasaran

Marek Petkovich 09:32 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 14 Mei? Pecahan Acara Asas Kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis Laporan Makroekonomi: Terdapat sangat sedikit peristiwa makroekonomi yang dijadualkan pada hari Rabu. Satu-satunya perkara yang penting adalah anggaran kedua Indeks Aktiviti Perniagaan Jerman untuk bulan April. Anggaran kedua biasanya

Paolo Greco 06:11 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 14 Mei: Hanya Perjanjian Perdagangan yang Penting

Pada hari Selasa, pasangan mata wang GBP/USD juga mengakhiri sesuatu yang boleh dipanggil memalukan kejatuhannya. Pada hari Isnin, dolar A.S. mengukuh dengan agak baik selepas pusingan pertama rundingan yang berjaya

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 14 Mei: Rentak Positif Tidak Bertahan Lama

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD mencatatkan pergerakan menaik untuk sebahagian besar hari Selasa. Seseorang mudah terbiasa dengan berita baik, dan pasaran menjangkakan pengukuhan berterusan dolar AS. Kami menjangkakan pertumbuhan dolar, dengan

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-05-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Dan Kemudian Tiba Saat Kesedaran: Kegembiraan Pasaran Terhadap Gencatan Dagangan Amerika Syarikat-China Semakin Pudar

Pasaran mata wang yang pada mulanya gembira selepas pengumuman gencatan dagang sementara antara AS dan China kini telah pudar. Optimisme awal telah bertukar menjadi kesedaran bahawa gencatan tidak bermakna penyelesaian

Irina Manzenko 01:23 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Inflasi Membuat Dolar Mengalami Kesulitan

Salah satu daripada beberapa penunjuk yang sekali-sekala mendapat perhatian pasaran ialah inflasi di AS. Selepas Donald Trump memperkenalkan tarif perdagangan, para ahli ekonomi segera mula membincangkan kemungkinan kenaikan inflasi. Kesimpulan

Chin Zhao 01:14 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Euro Bersedia untuk Tindakan Balas

Manusia merancang, Tuhan menentukan. Selepas Rumah Putih mengenakan tarif ketat pada Hari Kemerdekaan Amerika, banyak perbincangan tertumpu kepada peningkatan inflasi dan kelembapan ekonomi A.S. Namun begitu, berbeza dengan jangkaan tersebut

Marek Petkovich 00:18 2025-05-14 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasangan USD/CHF sedang berundur dari paras tertinggi bulanan yang dicapai semalam. Pengunduran ini dipacu oleh pembetulan teknikal selepas pergerakan menaik yang kuat. Indeks Dolar AS, yang mencerminkan nilai dolar berbanding

Irina Yanina 18:30 2025-05-13 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Hari ini, pasangan USD/CAD meneruskan kenaikan lima hari berturut-turut, dan kini diniagakan berhampiran paras psikologi utama 1.4000, di mana ia sedang berdepan rintangan menjelang penerbitan data Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI)

Irina Yanina 18:26 2025-05-13 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.