empty
03.04.2025 06:25 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 3rd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0952 level and planned to make entry decisions from there. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A drop followed by a false breakout at that level created a strong long entry point, which resulted in a 100-point rally for the euro. The technical picture was revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

Active buying of the euro has led to an intraday strengthening of the EUR/USD pair by over 300 points — something we haven't seen in more than 10 years. Many banks have already revised their short-term forecasts, targeting the 1.15 area, which triggered even more aggressive buying. It's likely that stop orders above the psychological level of 1.10 also fueled the surge during the European session.

During the U.S. session, several reports will be released, including weekly jobless claims and the trade balance. ISM services PMI data is also expected. Only exceptionally strong figures from the U.S. — possibly the last of their kind due to Trump's new tariffs — could help the dollar rebound.

If the euro dips after the reports, a false breakout around the 1.1043 support will be a signal to buy EUR/USD again, aiming to maintain bullish momentum with a target at 1.1113. A breakout and retest of this area from above will confirm a proper entry into long positions, with the next target at 1.1143. The ultimate target will be 1.1179, where I will lock in profits.

If EUR/USD drops and there's no bullish activity near 1.1043, euro pressure will intensify. In that case, bears could push the pair down to 1.0997. Only a false breakout there would justify new long positions. Otherwise, I plan to buy on a rebound from 1.0946, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers are in shock, so jumping into short positions today against such a strong bull market is not advisable. In the event of a negative market reaction to the U.S. ISM data, only a false breakout near the 1.1143 resistance would allow a short entry, targeting support at 1.1081. A breakout and consolidation below this level would open the door for a further drop to 1.1043. The final target would be 1.0997, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD continues rising in the second half of the day — which is more likely — and bears show no resistance at 1.1143, buyers may drive the pair even higher. In that case, I'll postpone shorts until a test of the next resistance at 1.1179. I will consider selling only after a failed breakout there. If no downward movement appears at that level either, I'll look for a bounce short entry at 1.1213, targeting a 30–35 point downward correction.

This image is no longer relevant

COT (Commitment of Traders) Report – March 25:

The report showed a slight increase in long positions and a strong reduction in shorts. There are not significantly more euro buyers, but sellers continue exiting the market. Based on recent inflation data in the eurozone and ECB officials' comments, the central bank is likely to keep its current policy unchanged in April, which could temporarily support the euro.

However, the real impact depends on how severely U.S. tariffs affect other countries. The greater the threat of a global economic slowdown, the stronger the pressure will be on risk assets — including the euro. The COT report shows that non-commercial long positions rose by 844 to 189,796, while short positions fell by 5,256 to 124,271. As a result, the net gap increased by 3,855.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, signaling the emergence of a new bull market for the euro.

Note: The author uses H1 hourly chart MAs, which may differ from classic daily chart definitions.

Bollinger Bands: If the pair declines, the lower band around 1.0891 will act as support.

Indicator Definitions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Smooths out volatility and noise to define the current trend. Period – 50 (yellow), 30 (green).
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – 12; Slow EMA – 26; SMA – 9.
  • Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.
  • Long non-commercial positions: Total long open interest held by non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions: Total short open interest held by non-commercial traders.
  • Net non-commercial position: The difference between short and long positions.

Recommended Stories

Bagaimana Rekomendasi Trading Pasangan GBP/USD pada 15 Mei? Kiat-kiat Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Rabu, pasangan GBP/USD melanjutkan pergerakan naiknya, meskipun tidak ada alasan fundamental khusus. Sehari sebelumnya, laporan inflasi AS dirilis di bawah ekspektasi, yang secara formal menunjukkan kemungkinan pelonggaran sikap

Paolo Greco 06:21 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Bagaimana Rekomendasi Trading Pasangan EUR/USD pada 15 Mei? Kiat-kiat Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Rabu, pasangan mata uang EUR/USD mengalami pergerakan naik selama sekitar setengah hari. "Lonjakan" terbaru pada euro ini sangat "mengagumkan," meskipun kemungkinan besar hanya merupakan penurunan lain pada dolar

Paolo Greco 06:21 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Rekomendasi dan Analisis Trading untuk GBP/USD pada 15 Mei: Roller Coaster Dimulai

Pada hari Rabu, pasangan mata uang GBP/USD melanjutkan trading dengan kecenderungan naik untuk beberapa waktu, tetapi kembali mengalami penurunan pada sore hari. Dari sudut pandang kami, dolar AS telah melemah

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Rekomendasi dan Analisis Trading untuk EUR/USD pada 15 Mei: Kembali Turun atau Menunggu Trump?

Pada hari Rabu, pasangan mata uang EUR/USD melanjutkan pergerakan naik, tetapi hanya sebentar. Pada sore hari, euro mulai turun, meskipun tidak ada faktor makroekonomi yang mendukung pergerakan tersebut. Donald Trump

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Bagaimana Rekomendasi Trading Pasangan GBP/USD pada 14 Mei? Kiat-kiat Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Selasa, pasangan GBP/USD mengalami pertumbuhan yang signifikan, meskipun tidak ada pemicu yang jelas di baliknya. Pada hari Senin, dolar naik karena alasan tertentu, tetapi pada hari Selasa turun

Paolo Greco 06:11 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Bagaimana Cara Trading Pasangan EUR/USD pada 14 Mei? Tips Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Selasa, pasangan mata uang EUR/USD hampir sepenuhnya pulih dari penurunan hari Senin. Seperti yang telah terbukti, diperlukan alasan kuat agar dolar AS menguat, seperti kemajuan dalam negosiasi perdagangan

Paolo Greco 06:11 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Rekomendasi dan Analisis Trading untuk GBP/USD pada 14 Mei: Bahkan Pengangguran di Inggris Tidak Membantu...

Pada hari Selasa, pasangan mata uang GBP/USD dengan mudah pulih dari penurunan yang dialaminya pada hari Senin. Sekali lagi, kita melihat bahwa pound Inggris naik lebih kuat daripada euro

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Rekomendasi dan Analisis Trading untuk EUR/USD pada 14 Mei: Sirkus Berlanjut

Pada pasangan mata uang EUR/USD, dengan mudah memulihkan sebagian besar kerugian hari Senin. Pada hari Senin, dilaporkan bahwa tarif impor antara Tiongkok dan AS telah dikurangi, yang dapat dianggap sebagai

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Apa yang Perlu Diperhatikan pada 9 Mei? Rincian Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pemula

Tidak ada acara makroekonomi yang dijadwalkan untuk hari Jumat. Perkembangan fundamental juga akan terbatas, tetapi sama sekali tidak jelas faktor mana yang memengaruhi pembentukan harga. Pound dan euro memiliki alasan

Paolo Greco 06:19 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Bagaimana Cara Trading Pasangan GBP/USD pada 9 Mei? Tips Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Kamis, pasangan GBP/USD melanjutkan penurunan berombaknya dalam saluran menyamping dan gagal untuk menembus keluar, berbeda dengan pasangan EUR/USD. Dari sudut pandang kami, pound Inggris memiliki dua kali lebih

Paolo Greco 05:55 2025-05-09 UTC+2
Tidak bisa bicara sekarang?
Tanyakan pertanyaan anda lewat chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.