empty
04.09.2022 03:43 PM
Bitcoin could drop to $15,000 and here's why

Bitcoin continues to consolidate locally under the resistance level of 20,700. At the same time, it remains above $20,000 per coin, which is an important aspect in its further dynamics.

Nevertheless, the fundamental background and upcoming events are unlikely to favor keeping the main cryptocurrency above this border.

This image is no longer relevant

A rate hike by the US Federal Reserve on September 21 will determine the market's direction in the coming months. According to Wall Street analysts, the Fed could go for another 75 basis point hike in September to curb inflation, which would likely push the price of bitcoin below the $20,000 level.

Bitcoin Pricing Models

Analysts are now scratching their heads over whether bitcoin has reached the bottom of a bearish cycle. The lower bound of this downward movement can be predicted using various network price models such as the realized price, delta price, and Thermo price. However, the actual price movement still depends on technical and macroeconomic factors.

The realized price is a widely used on-chain price model for estimating the bottom of a major cryptocurrency bear cycle. This is the average price at which each bitcoin in circulation last moved. Historically, BTC has always fallen below the strike price. When this happens, other price patterns are used. The current selling price is $21,592.

Historically, the price of bitcoin has bottomed out at the delta price in the 2015 and 2018 bear markets. The delta price is currently $14,478. This indicates that BTC quotes may fall another 28% from the current level.

Thermo price signaled a market bottom in 2011. This is the historical price at which each bitcoin was first mined. According to Thermo price, the bottom for BTC is $2,365. However, quotes are unlikely to fall to these levels in the current cycle as the number of addresses holding BTC has increased tremendously.

Bitcoin: Price Risks Falling to Lower Levels

Now the cryptocurrency market retains a close correlation with traditional assets, in particular stocks, which means it is sensitive to the monetary policy of the US central bank.

The US Fed's rate hike will mainly depend on August jobs data and CPI data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 67% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike. In addition, Wall Street banks are expecting a 75 basis point gain in September.

According to US employment data for August, the employment rate fell to 315,000 from 528,000 in July. Moreover, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in August from 3.5% in July. This gives a small share of optimism to the cryptocurrency market.

However, the data on the consumer price index of September 13 will basically dispel all doubts about the step by which the rate will be raised at the next meeting. But the decline in oil and food prices may slow down the rate hike by the Fed.

$20,000 Level Key Role

September has historically been a bad month for US stock and cryptocurrency markets.

Analysts at hedge fund AlphaTrAI believe that the latest US jobs report will eventually push the top cryptocurrency below the current $20,000 zone to $15,000.

AlphaTrAI CIO Max Gohman emphasized this after the latest employment report was stronger than expected. Higher unemployment figures mean that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates higher than they have been since previous periods of monetary tightening.

Gohman, like many other analysts, based on the close correlation of the crypto market with macroeconomic sentiment, stressed that the $20,000 level is now critical. Its loss will mean a deeper fall for bitcoin.

Hedge fund AlphaTrAI converted most of its cryptocurrency holdings into cash at the end of August, ending the month with a drop of just 0.4%.

Ekaterina Kiseleva,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaTrade
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade

Recommended Stories

Analyse technique du mouvement quotidien des prix de la cryptomonnaie Ethereum, vendredi 16 mai 2025.

Si nous examinons le graphique de 4 heures, la cryptomonnaie Ethereum semble évoluer au-dessus de la WMA (21) qui sert de support dynamique, où la WMA a une pente ascendante

Arief Makmur 06:09 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Analyse technique des fluctuations intrajournalières du prix de la cryptomonnaie Uniswap, vendredi 16 mai 2025.

Sur le graphique de 4 heures, la cryptomonnaie Uniswap semble présenter un modèle de Coin élargi descendant. Ainsi, même si le mouvement du prix d'Uniswap se situe en dessous

Arief Makmur 06:09 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Le Bitcoin bondit de 96 600 $ à 104 500 $ en 24 heures

Le Bitcoin a grimpé à 104 500 $, après s'être négocié à 96 600 $ seulement hier matin. Ce mouvement confiant au-dessus de la barre des 100 000 $ signale

Jakub Novak 14:49 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Recommandations de trading pour le marché des cryptomonnaies le 9 mai

Le Bitcoin a dépassé les 100,000 dollars, tandis que l'Ethereum tente de se consolider au-dessus de 2,000 dollars. Après le rallye spectaculaire d'hier, qui s'est poursuivi durant la séance asiatique

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:46 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Analyse technique du mouvement des prix intrajournaliers de la cryptomonnaie Ethereum, vendredi 9 mai 2025.

Si nous observons le graphique de 4 heures de la cryptomonnaie Ethereum, il semble que le mouvement des prix évolue au-dessus de la WMA (30 Shift 2) qui présente également

Arief Makmur 06:27 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Analyse technique du mouvement des prix intrajournaliers de la cryptomonnaie Bitcoin, vendredi 9 mai 2025.

Sur le graphique en 4 heures de la cryptomonnaie Bitcoin, l'indicateur Stochastic Oscillator est actuellement en conditions de surachat et se prépare à croiser pour une vente et à passer

Arief Makmur 06:27 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Bitcoin : Qui Fait Monter le Prix — Powell, le Trésor Américain, ou les Short Squeezes ?

Alors que les indices boursiers restent stables, l'or se consolide près de ses sommets, et le Bitcoin attire à nouveau l'attention. Le fleuron du marché des cryptomonnaies s'est approché

Ekaterina Kiseleva 00:28 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Recommandations de trading pour le marché des cryptomonnaies le 8 mai

Le Bitcoin a atteint juste en dessous de 100,000 dollars, tandis que l'Ethereum a atteint 1,900 dollars. Une telle croissance majeure du marché des cryptomonnaies confirme à nouveau ses perspectives

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:22 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Bitcoin à la Croisée des Chemins : Rupture ou Revers ?

Le prix du Bitcoin oscille près d'un seuil psychologiquement significatif, et les acteurs du marché se préparent à une nouvelle montée ou à une inversion soudaine qui pourrait anéantir

Ekaterina Kiseleva 01:16 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Le marché des crypto-monnaies s'ouvre avec une croissance dynamique

Les contrats à terme sur les indices boursiers américains ont fortement bondi à l'ouverture de la séance de négociation d'aujourd'hui suite à l'annonce de la reprise des consultations

Jurij Tolin 14:14 2025-05-07 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.