A busy macroeconomic calendar is set for Friday. The Eurozone will publish its GDP report for the third quarter in its third estimate, which may differ from the previous two. Expectations for economic growth in Europe remain low, yet the euro has been rising regardless of this factor. Meanwhile, in the United States, key reports on unemployment, wages, and the labor market will be released. These reports are of significant importance to the market and have a strong influence on the Federal Reserve's decisions. However, this week, the market has been ignoring all events except Donald Trump's policies. It is quite possible that today, too, we will see illogical market movements.

Analysis of Fundamental Events

Among Friday's fundamental events, the speeches of ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stand out. Both may address Trump's recent economic measures, evaluate their impact on inflation and the broader economy, and comment on future monetary policy adjustments based on the new reality. We expect important statements from both Lagarde and Powell today. However, will this support the US dollar, or will the currency continue to decline solely due to negative trader sentiment toward the US economic outlook?

General Outlook

On this final trading day of the week, currency pairs may move in any direction, as the market is currently trading on emotion, with Trump as the primary driver. For example, yesterday's ECB meeting was largely ignored by traders. Today's economic calendar is packed, but there is no guarantee the market will react logically to these events.

Key Trading System Rules

1. The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout of a level). The faster the signal appears, the stronger it is.
2. If two or more false signals appear around the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. During a flat market, the pair may generate numerous false signals or none at all. In either case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of consolidation.
4. Trades should be executed during the European and early US trading sessions, after which all positions should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly time frame, MACD signals should only be traded when strong volatility and a confirmed trend are present (validated by a trendline or trend channel).
6. If two levels are too close (5-20 points apart), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone rather than individual levels.
7. After a 15-20 point movement in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

Chart Explanations

Support and resistance levels – These serve as price targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit orders can be placed near these levels.

Red lines – Trend channels or trendlines that indicate the current market trend and preferred trading direction.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) – Histogram and signal line, a secondary indicator that can provide trade signals.

Final Thoughts for Beginner Forex Traders

Major news events and speeches (always listed in the economic calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. During these releases, traders should exercise extreme caution or exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals.

For beginners, it is crucial to remember that not every trade will be profitable. The key to long-term success in forex trading is developing a clear strategy and applying sound risk management principles.