10.04.2025 05:08 AM美國股市指數標普500昨日創下該指數歷史上最大單日漲幅之一。該指數僅差幾個點未能達到5516.00的目標水平。目前還有一個微妙的問題，即4月2日至3日的缺口是否已完全填補。如果市場覺得有未完成的部分，可能會在日圖上的灰色矩形區域內再停留一兩天。關鍵的阻力位是MACD線約在5669.50。如果能突破該位置，可能會重啟中期上升趨勢，有望將指數推向新的歷史高點。
然而，我們的主要情境預測價格將逆轉，回調到4612.00的支撐位——即2023年7月的峰值。Marlin振盪指標從零線轉向下跌，支持這一觀點。原因是，在特朗普昨日公佈的降低關稅至基準10%的75個國家中，沒有哪一個是美國的主要貿易夥伴。
在4小時圖中，價格仍然位於MACD線上方，這允許更精確地測試5516.00，甚至可能超出該水平。然而，若跌破MACD線和5356.00，可能會開啟通往5274.00的道路，再次跌破則將確認反轉情境。
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