Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy have approached a decisive moment in their fight over the debt ceiling. The President is set to receive the House Speaker and other Congressional leaders at the White House on Tuesday, and during which McCarthy is likely to seek spending cuts as a condition for suspending or raising the debt limit. Biden, meanwhile, will most certainly insist on separating the issues and calls for an increase in the debt limit.
The stakes are higher than just politics as a default would trigger a market sell-off, as well as could cost millions of jobs. In fact, Treasury bill markets already showed new concerns about the possibility of the US defaulting on its debt in early June. However, expectations for the meeting are low.
Biden said he plans to keep his promise not to negotiate over the debt ceiling, arguing that it would create a dangerous precedent that allows Republicans to hold the country's economy hostage compared to their preferred political outcomes.
The dollar index once again approached the psychological level of 100:
McCarthy asserts that there is no alternative, and his position strengthened over the weekend, when 43 Senate Republicans, including minority leader Mitch McConnell, signed a letter stating that they would not support a clean debt ceiling increase. That is enough to prevent Democrats from overcoming a filibuster if they propose one without any conditions attached.
The situation on Pennsylvania Avenue has also prompted a new consideration of executive actions, such as Biden's reference to the 14th Amendment, which states that the validity of the country's public debt should not be questioned. But when asked in an interview last Friday, the President said he "hasn't gotten there yet."
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that such a maneuver could trigger a "constitutional crisis" and do little to prevent unnecessary economic damage. Economic experts also said that it could not only lead to the court overturning the initiative and plunging the country into an immediate financial crisis, but also scare off investors and raise borrowing costs for the government.
"We will have an economic and financial disaster of our own making if we don't take any actions that President Biden and the US Treasury Department can take to prevent this," Yellen said.
週三將有大量的宏觀經濟事件安排,這些事件均為四月份服務業和製造業的採購經理人指數(PMI)報告。各個歐洲國家,包括歐元區整體、英國及美國都將發布這些指數。
在週二,英鎊兌美元貨幣對交易相對平靜,再次顯示出「飽和平盤」的跡象。如之前指出,美國美元最近只有兩種表現:要麼下跌,要麼持平。
EUR/USD貨幣對在星期二的交易比星期一稍顯平靜。美國美元避免了再一次的下跌,但現在慶祝還為時過早。
美元兌日圓(USD/JPY)貨幣對已連續四周處於穩定的下跌趨勢中。週二,賣方將該貨幣對推至139.00區域的邊緣,創下七個月以來的最低價位。
在超買情況下,金價創下歷史新高至3500美元後,目前出現回調。然而,由於對唐納德·特朗普總統關稅政策潛在經濟影響的持續擔憂,多頭情緒依然強勁。
歐元/英鎊貨幣對今日下跌,結束先前連續兩日的上漲,目前交易於接近心理水平0.8600的位置。 英鎊受到了美國與英國持續貿易談判樂觀情緒的支持。
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