Gold found support just below $1,530 per ounce on Tuesday with dips in early Asia limited to $1,532 before a rally to the $1,545 area ahead of Wednesday's New York open. Silver still finds strong support on dips with 18-month highs close to $18.50 per ounce on Wednesday.
There are strong expectations that the ECB will launch an aggressive monetary stimulus package at the 12th policy meeting in September with Vice President de Guindos calling on the bank to act with determination.
German bond yields remain on negative territory across the curve with the 10-year yield at -0.60%.
There is also a strong likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the September policy meeting with futures markets expecting at least a further 0.25% rate cut.
Confidence in the Federal Reserve has been damaged by persistent attacks on the central bank and Chair Powell by President Trump.
The US Administration approach to policy making will also be a key corrosive factor to dent sentiment on the US dollar.
Barring a breakthrough in US-China trade talks, underlying risk appetite is likely to remain fragile with strong underlying demand for precious metals.
European political factors will make a crucial impact with a fresh row erupting over Brexit as the UK government proposed suspending parliament for a month ahead of October 14th.
A lack of confidence in the US and European political prospects will also reinforce demand for precious metals while the euro's vulnerability will tend to weaken the shared currency rather than reverse gains.
Immediate technical resistance for silver is seen at near $18.70 with a medium-term target of $20.00 per ounce. Short-term silver support is likely to be on dips to $18.20 per ounce.
Initial gold resistance is expected at near $1,560 with a longer-term target of $1,600 per ounce and short-term support near $1,535.
在歐洲時段的前半段,金價再次面臨日內壓力,在周五跌破3200美元的關鍵心理價位。圍繞中美貿易休戰的樂觀情緒繼續削弱對傳統避險資產的需求,阻礙了該金屬獲益於前一天強勁反彈的機會。
投資者對於唐納德·特朗普緊跟股市走勢充滿信心,因此標普500指數不再需要特別的理由上漲。這個廣泛的股權指數原本在等待來自中國的好消息,但阿里巴巴的財報令投資者失望。
週四發布的 GDP 報告顯示,日本經濟在第一季度同比萎縮 0.7%,這是過去一年中的首次年度下降,且情況遠壞於預期。 經濟萎縮主要歸因於美國執行的貿易關稅和出口減少。
市場已經完全反映了美國與中國會談的結果,該會談導致達成了為期 90 天的貿易休戰。比預期疲軟的美國經濟數據抵消了週初的樂觀情緒。
週四,英鎊/美元貨幣對橫盤整理,波動性低,這是過去一個月英鎊的典型行為模式。首先出現了典型的水平區間,現在我們看到了帶有輕微下行趨勢的「波動」。
週四,歐元/美元貨幣對雙向波動,但最終仍保持在移動平均線下方。它位於移動平均線下方的位置使我們預期美元將進一步增強。
上週,唐納·川普宣布在他的「美國解放運動」下,與英國簽署了第一份協議。後來揭示該協議尚未簽署,談判可能還需要幾週時間。
中國商品正在大量湧入歐洲市場,但歐元/美元的多頭並未因此感到恐慌。儘管美國已經減少了從中國進口的關稅,但加權平均關稅仍然高達39%——這是一個顯著的高比率。
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