China announced retaliation against US companies on Friday with the US Administration, in turn, announcing a further increase in tariffs on Chinese exports after the market close.
Fears over the US economy increased sharply with the impact of tariffs amplified by Trump's rhetoric in ordering US companies to pull out of China.
Trump also launched another attack on the Federal Reserve in general with Chair Powell a particular target. The dollar fell sharply late on Friday and losses extended at Monday's Asian open with USD/JPY posting 2019 lows close to 104.50.
US Treasuries rallied sharply with the 10-year yield sliding to fresh 3-year lows below 1.45% while the 2 and 10-year bonds yield curve inverted once again.
There was an element of moderation in language in Asia on Monday with Trump indicating that he did not want US companies to pull out of China while Beijing attempted to ease tensions with hopes for dialogue.
USD/JPY then rallied sharply to above 105.80 after Trump stated that China wants to return to the negotiating table and that a deal is possible.
Overall confidence will remain extremely fragile in the short term. Trump's increasingly erratic rhetoric will deter longer-term fund managers from taking positions which will increase the influence of speculative players. There will also be very quick moves to liquidate positions.
This effect will be amplified by a seasonal lack of volatility during the peak European and US holiday season.
Trump will see lower interest rates as vital to support the economy and attacks on the Fed will continue. The yuan slide will also draw strong criticism from the White House and the possibility of direct intervention to weaken the US currency.
The potential use of emergency powers to stop US companies operating in China will also have an important negative US economic impact and undermine the dollar. A key tipping point is likely to have been reached with Trump causing long-term damage.
Rhetoric from Trump and Chinese officials will be watched closely, although it will be equally important to watch any comments from key moderate Administration officials such as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.
The response from US congressional leaders will also be important, especially key Republican officials, and there is a much greater risk of moves to remove Trump from office.
眾議院通過了被Donald Trump稱為「大而美麗」的減稅法案,加上美國綜合採購經理指數(PMI)從50.6上升到52.1,幫助美元重新站穩腳跟。歐元兌美元匯率跌破了1.13。
澳洲央行(RBA)於週三將利率下調25個基點至3.85%,符合市場預期。在結束的新聞發布會上,RBA行長承認曾討論過下調50個基點的可能性。
黃金在達到近兩週的最高點後正在回落。此次回調缺乏明顯的基本面誘因,由於多個支持因素,預計這次回落將受到限制。
美元/加元貨幣對在嘗試從隔夜1.3815–1.3810水準反彈後遇到困難,顯示出一周來的跌勢可能持續。 油價在最近的回調後反彈,這也對加元提供了支持。
如果你損害了與鄰居的關係,就不要指望他們會提供幫助。Donald Trump的關稅政策和後續的強制性談判削弱了其他國家和外國投資者購買美國國債的意願。
由於唐納·特朗普在美國及全球引起的混亂和不穩定,已成為常態。然而,它們仍然對市場造成顯著波動,且這種情況尚未有任何改善跡象。
週三,歐元/美元貨幣對繼續上升走勢。美元已連續超過一週地穩步下跌——這種情況已有一個多月未曾出現。
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