empty
19.11.2018 06:04 PM
Forex Market Analysis: Is it time to get rid of the dollar?

Investors are moving away from the dollar, and recent price movements suggest that some drivers who have been cheering on the dollar this year are starting to lose strength. If the dynamics will be the same, the "bullish" rally of the dollar will end. It is too early to talk about it, but the momentum is definitely downward. In 2018, there are 4 main factors that led to the growth of the dollar: a strong economic recovery, rising interest rates, pressure on the stock market, and a trade conflict. Although recent reports indicate an increase in consumer prices and consumer spending, which is growing at the fastest pace in the last five months, demand growth does not make such a strong impression. However, more importantly, the position of officials of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) is becoming less hawkish. Last week, the head of the regulator Jerome Powell expressed his concern about the pressures on the economy that will be present in 2019, and Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said there are signs of a decline in global growth, which should be taken into account by the US Central Bank. So, R. Clarida does not expect a strong acceleration of inflation in 2018. Although both politicians are still confident in the American economy to raise rates again in December, there is a chance that next month's meeting will be accompanied by the publication of a less hawkish forecast. No major releases are foreseen for the United States this week, a change in sentiment of Fed policymakers may increase the pressure on the dollar in the thin market.The GBP will still hold close attention, since Theresa May, the prime minister of the United Kingdom, can be given a vote of no confidence. Last week, the pound sterling fell by more than 1.5% in one day, as the process of negotiating a deal to leave the country from the European Union is again at an impasse. The situation is still developing, however, according to one analyst, "Conservatives can get enough votes for a vote of no confidence in the prime minister who will be put to the vote in parliament. If the opposition gets votes, then the British government will plunge into an even stronger crisis. Even if Theresa May wins the vote, the general election is almost unavoidable, since the Prime Minister's coalition partners, represented by the Irish Democratic Unionist Party, are against the current draft of the deal and are likely to leave the government. The possibility of a general election on the eve of the March deadline for secession from the EU will create even greater chaos in the already volatile political arena. The first reaction of the market will be to reduce the pound to a level of 1.2500."Macroeconomic statistics has deteriorated, consumer inflation and retail sales have slowed. If this trend continues, the GBP will be difficult to support the upward movement.

This image is no longer relevant

Despite the difficulties in the UK, the past week was excellent for the single European currency, which for the first time in a month, passed the 20-day moving average. The euro did not pay attention to the weakness of last week's macro statistics, including the ZEW survey for Germany, GDP for Q3 and the trade balance of the Euro block. EUR is almost completely dependent on the demand for the dollar and risk appetite. It is predicted that this week, the dynamics will not change, as the currency will be indifferent to any weakness in the reports on producer prices in Germany or business activity in the eurozone. It is expected that the growth of the EUR / USD pair will rise to 1.15, and probably even 1.1550, helped by the recovery of the stock market and the reduction of the dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

Last Friday, all three commodity currencies were trading in the "green zone". The Australian dollar rose to a two-month high, the New Zealand dollar, to a maximum of four months. AUD and NZD have grown amid hopes that Donald Trump will not introduce a new round of tariffs for China. Since the mid-term elections, the rhetoric of the American leader regarding the PRC has softened. The president said that the Chinese government sent a list of changes, which are ready to go to trade for a deal. D. Trump believes that the list is quite complete, stating that the United States also hopes for a deal, but so far there are no acceptable conditions for this. The American president said that the United States may not have to introduce new tariffs for Beijing. Something similar has happened more than once, so there is no reason to think that the trade war has come to an end until both parties make an official announcement. In the meantime, two weeks are left before the G20 summit, and it seems that optimism about trade negotiations will lead to an increase in AUD and NZD.In a pair of USD / CAD on a technical basis, the pair reached a maximum of 1.3260. Having risen to a maximum of three months last week, the USD / CAD rally has declined amid the weakness of the US currency. Taking into account the recent losses of the currency and the reduction in oil prices, it is not even believed that the Central Bank of Canada remains resolute. During their last monetary policy meeting, Canadian officials said that "The interest rate should be adjusted to the norm in order to achieve the target inflation rate. This view will be tested at the end of this week, as expected output of consumer price index and retail sales of Canada. Strong data will confirm optimism and lead the pair to the level of 1.30."

This image is no longer relevant

Svetlana Doronina,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

صراع العمالقة: ماسك ضد ترامب بينما يحصي المستثمرون الخسائر

داو جونز -0.25%، S&P 500 -0.53%، ناسداك -0.83% تسلا تتراجع مع تصاعد الخلاف العلني بين ترامب وماسك طلبات إعانة البطالة الأولية ترتفع للأسبوع الثاني على التوالي أسهم أديداس وبوما تتراجع

Thomas Frank 11:45 2025-06-06 UTC+2

الأسواق المتباينة: الأسهم الأمريكية تتوقف، وآسيا تتسارع

داو جونز: -0.22%؛ S&P 500: ثابت؛ ناسداك: +0.32%. انكمش قطاع الخدمات في الولايات المتحدة في مايو لأول مرة منذ ما يقرب من عام. تراجعت CrowdStrike بسبب توقعات إيرادات مخيبة للآمال

12:40 2025-06-05 UTC+2

ملخص أخبار السوق الأمريكي ليوم 5 يونيو

أنهت المؤشرات الرئيسية للأسهم الأمريكية جلسة التداول بتغيرات طفيفة: ارتفع مؤشر S&P 500 بنسبة 0.01%، وزاد مؤشر Nasdaq بنسبة 0.32%، بينما تراجع مؤشر Dow Jones بنسبة 0.22%. تبنى المشاركون

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:59 2025-06-05 UTC+2

توقف مؤشرات الولايات المتحدة، وتسارع آسيا: ما الذي يحدث في الأسواق العالمية

داو جونز -0.22%، وستاندرد آند بورز 500 ثابت، وناسداك +0.32% قطاع الخدمات ينكمش في مايو لأول مرة منذ ما يقرب من عام CrowdStrike تتراجع بسبب توقعات أرباح ربع سنوية متشائمة

Thomas Frank 10:19 2025-06-05 UTC+2

تذبذب البيتكوين: هل يستمر في الاتجاه الصاعد أم يدخل في مرحلة التماسك؟

تواجه العملة المشفرة الأولى، بيتكوين، ضغوطًا كبيرة، حيث تتأرجح بين التراجعات من القمم السابقة والارتفاعات نحو قمم جديدة. ومع ذلك، يرفض الأصل الرائد الاستسلام ويواصل مساره نحو ارتفاعات جديدة

Larisa Kolesnikova 14:51 2025-06-04 UTC+2

ملخص أخبار السوق الأمريكي ليوم 4 يونيو

وسط النزاعات التجارية المستمرة والمخاوف المالية المتزايدة، يواصل المستثمرون الأمريكيون الالتزام باستراتيجية "شراء الانخفاض". وبعد أن وصلت إلى مستويات جديدة، تظل S&P 500 في دائرة الضوء حيث يقيم المشاركون

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:42 2025-06-04 UTC+2

التفاؤل في الأسواق: ارتفاع أسهم Dollar General وPinterest وWells Fargo لرفع المؤشرات

ارتفاع مؤشر داو جونز بنسبة 0.51%، وارتفاع مؤشر S&P 500 بنسبة 0.54%، وارتفاع مؤشر ناسداك بنسبة 0.81% تقدم Dollar General بعد تحقيق هدف المبيعات السنوي تقدم Pinterest بعد ارتفاع أسهم

Thomas Frank 10:34 2025-06-04 UTC+2

النمو وسط المخاوف: انتعاش الأسواق، لكن التصنيع وتسلا يتعثران

المؤشرات: داو ثابت، وستاندرد آند بورز 500 يرتفع بنسبة 0.4%، وناسداك يرتفع بنسبة 0.7% المستثمرون يأملون في محادثات تجارية رغم تهديد ترامب بشأن الصلب تسلا تتراجع بعد الإبلاغ عن مبيعات

Thomas Frank 11:41 2025-06-03 UTC+2

ملخص أخبار السوق الأمريكي ليوم 3 يونيو

بعد المكاسب في الجلسة السابقة، تعرضت المؤشرات الرئيسية للأسهم الأمريكية، بما في ذلك S&P 500 وNasdaq، لضغوط حيث تراجعت العقود الآجلة وسط استمرار حالة عدم اليقين بشأن المفاوضات التجارية

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:27 2025-06-03 UTC+2

ترامب يهز وول ستريت مجددًا: مؤشرات السوق تستجيب فورًا

تصريحات ترامب حول الصين تثير تحركات متقلبة في الأسواق. شركة Ulta Beauty تحقق مكاسب بعد رفع توقعاتها لأرباح العام بالكامل. ارتفع مؤشر داو بنسبة 0.1%، بينما انخفض مؤشر S&P

12:44 2025-06-02 UTC+2
لا تستطيع التحدث الآن؟
اطرح سؤالك في الدردشة.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.